"If you're going to panic, do it fast and beat the crowd." ~ Jesse Livermore

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Dr Doom: Clouds Ahead

The Economic Fundamentals of 2013 by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate: "several risks lie ahead. First, America’s mini-deal on taxes has not steered it fully away from the fiscal cliff. Sooner or later, another ugly fight will take place on the debt ceiling, the delayed sequester of spending, and a congressional “continuing spending resolution” (an agreement to allow the government to continue functioning in the absence of an appropriations law). Markets may become spooked by another fiscal cliffhanger. And even the current mini-deal implies a significant amount of drag – about 1.4% of GDP – on an economy that has grown at barely a 2% rate over the last few quarters. CommentsSecond, while the ECB’s actions have reduced tail risks in the eurozone – a Greek exit and/or loss of market access for Italy and Spain – the monetary union’s fundamental problems have not been resolved. Together with political uncertainty, they will re-emerge with full force in the second half of the year. . . "

U.S. New-Home Sales Drop Blemishes Best Year Since 2009 - Bloomberg: "Purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly decreased in December, a temporary blemish as the industry wrapped up its best year since 2009 to emerge as a bright spot for the economy. The 7.3 percent drop in December sales to a 369,000 annual pace followed the prior month’s 398,000 rate that was faster than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Builders sold 367,000 homes in 2012, the most in three years and the first annual increase in seven."


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