"If you're going to panic, do it fast and beat the crowd." ~ Jesse Livermore

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Greece is going to default--it's now a question of how messy it will be

How The Financial Crisis Created A 'New Third World'
NPR
The country is now on the brink of a major default. "They're going to default ... it's now a question of how messy it will be," says writer Michael Lewis. His new book Boomerang looks at Greece and four other places affected by the financial crisis. ...
Italy downgrade deepens contagion fears over euro debt crisis
The Guardian
The move threatens to increase Italy's cost of borrowing, and will add yet more pressure to European finance ministers now wrestling with a financial crisis that has spread across the continent. Italy's prime minsiter Silvio Berlusconi criticised ...
Canadian Dollar Extends Decline On Greece Default Fears
Wall Street Journal
By Satish Sarangarajan Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar extended its decline as simmering worries of a Greece default pushed higher yielding currencies lower. "The pain continues. There's been relentless selling of risk ...
Text-Fitch global cross-asset 1st-half default update
Reuters
NEW YORK, October 04 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has released a new report examining default trends across the universe of Fitch-rated global corporate, sovereign, public finance, and structured finance securities in the first half of 2011 (1H'11). ...
Italy's Tremonti: European Contagion Risks Still Exist
Wall Street Journal
To prevent contagion, Tremonti said the government must focus on shoring up public finances and ruled out any measures to boost the economy. "The trend is to give absolute priority to the public accounts side," he said. "For us there were and there are ...
Greek default: Three months and counting
Globe and Mail
Greece getting out of the euro would probably mean contagion to other countries [like] Italy and Spain. [And] we can't afford to have Italy going down. It's too big a country. On a 12-month view, we see the US not going to a recession. ...
S&P Cuts General Maritime To Selective Default >GMR
Wall Street Journal
(GMR) to selective default, citing the oil-tanker company's failure to make a scheduled principal payment. General Maritime earlier this week disclosed it had reached an agreement with its lenders to pay down the revolver portion of its 2010 credit ...
Merkel: threat of contagion from debt rescheduling would be huge
Reuters
Speaking at a regional conference of her Christian Democrat party, Merkel said the threat of contagion as a result of such a debt rescheduling would be very big. She also said the future permanent euro zone bailout fund should play a similar role to ...
JGBs gain, Greek default fears support safe-haven demand
Reuters
By Akiko Takeda TOKYO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Long-dated Japanese government bonds jumped on Tuesday as shares extended the previous day's steep losses with investors fleeing risk assets on growing doubts over Greece's ability to avoid default, sending the ...
Austria's Fekter Says Greece Contagion Risk Is 'Damocles' Sword'
BusinessWeek
By Boris Groendahl Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said nobody can tell how big the contagion risk of a Greek default would be and European policy makers were striving to avoid finding out, according to the Austrian Press ...
PRECIOUS-Gold rises 1 pct on fears of Greek default
Reuters
By Lewa Pardomuan SINGAPORE, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Gold gained 1 percent on Tuesday, rising for a fourth day, as investors dumped equities and turned to bullion on growing fears that a Greek defaultcould trigger another global recession. ...
Stocks slide on Greek default fears
Fin24
Johannesburg/New York - South African stocks tumbled to their lowest close in nearly two months on Tuesday, falling 2.6% as global growth concerns and fears of contagion from the Greek debt crisis hit prices across the board, including safe-haven gold ...
Greek default still looms large
Equitymaster.com
This was on account of lingering concerns about the Greek default. The indices opened with a cautions note. However towards the afternoon session selling pressure took over and sent the indices well below the dotted line. While the BSE-Sensex closed ...
US Bank Credit-Default Swaps Climb on European Debt Crisis
BusinessWeek
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The cost to protect the debt of the biggest US banks climbed as concern intensified that Europe's sovereign financial crisis will infect lender balance sheets. Credit-defaultswaps on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased 43.8 basis ...
John Thomas Financial Releases Chief Economist Mike Norman's Analysis on Greece
MarketWatch (press release)
Therefore, as long as the Greek government agrees to further conditions of austerity and as long as the Greek people allow the current government to remain in power then the likelihood of default remains very low. In addition, Germany is beginning to ...
Pictet's Zweifel Sees 50%-60% Haircut in 'Orderly' Greek Default
BusinessWeek
History shows we cannot have an orderly default but it is possible to have one if contagion is avoided.” The Stoxx 600 Europe Index plunged 17 percent in the three months through September, the worst quarter since 2008, on concern that the region's ...
Morgan Stanley: Credit Default Swap Spreads Jump Despite CEO's Pushback
Barron's (blog)
By Avi Salzman Morgan Stanley (MS) credit default swaps continued to soar today, despite an attempt by CEO James Gorman to push back against the chatter about the company's exposure to bad European debt. CDS spreads jumped to 603 today from just 421 a ...
Germany Debating Rules For Sovereign Default
Wall Street Journal
The letter highlights how the debate over resolving the euro-zone debt crisis is increasingly moving towards establishing a proper framework for sovereign default, despite being short on detail about the specific rules that may be needed. ...
SCI can overcome temporary financial crisis- shipping secy
Reuters India
MUMBAI Oct 4 (Reuters) - State-owned Shipping Corp of India has been impacted due to a slowdown attributable to the global economic crisis, but it has the financial capacity to overcome the problem, India's shipping secretary K. Mohandas said Tuesday. ...
CDS numbers count against banking system
Financial Times
On Tuesday that number seemed to be eurozone bank credit default swaps, or CDS, which show the region's financial system is closer to breakdown than at any time in recent years. The iTraxx credit defaults swaps index, which measures the risk ofdefault ...
Greek Default: Analysts Don't Ask "When?" but "How?"
NASDAQ
For over a year now, the world has been grappling with the possibility of a credit default by Greece – today, analysts and the markets say that a default in some form is inevitable. The question analysts are now asking is whether it will be “orderly,” ...
Canadian Bonds Mixed As Bernanke Comments Negate Greek Default Concern
Wall Street Journal
By Satish Sarangarajan Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Canadian bond prices were mixed Tuesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fueled hopes of another policy action, offsetting the ongoing fear that Greece will default. ...
Default fears send shares of American Airline's parent south
Denver Post
By Scott Mayerowitz AP NEW YORK — Shares of American Airlines' parent company plunged to an eight-year low Monday as Wall Street analysts suggested the carrier turn to bankruptcy court to lower costs. Investors also were spooked by a report showing a ...
Seoul markets hit by default fears in Greece
The Korea Herald
Korea's financial markets on Wednesday reflected worse fiscal projections unveiled by the Greek government, seeing a plunge of stocks prices and further depreciation of the won against the US dollar. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell by 63.46 ...
Pre Market: Surging Greek Default Fears Send Markets Tumbling ...
By T3Live.com
European markets fell sharply Tuesday after eurozone finance ministers said last night that they'll wait until later in October to decide whether to extend more aid to Greece.
Minyanville.com - All Articles
Michael Lewis on Greek default: It would be ugly for awhile | The ...
By Eric W. Dolan
Financial journalist Michael Lewis appeared Monday on MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show to explain Europe's financial crisis and how it could effect the United States. He said that if Greece defaults on its debt and abandons the euro, ...
The Raw Story
Dexia Gets a Fence to Prevent Contagion to Other European Banks ...
By Wall St. Cheat Sheet
Dexia (DXBGF.PK), a Franco-Belgian banking group, is under pressure due to its exposure to 'toxic' assets -- primarily Greek sovereign bonds.
Wall St. Cheat Sheet
Greece near default, EU in ... - Protesilaos Stavrou on current issues
By Protesilaos Stavrou
Greece is on the verge of a formal default or a massive debt restructuring, while the rest of the euro countries are all facing their own spiralling problems which are interconnected once seen with a clear eye. Within this bleak environment it is ...
Protesilaos Stavrou on current issues
The Role of Default in Macroeconomics
By repec
What is the main limitation of much modern macro-economic theory, among the failings pointed out by William R. White at the 2010 Mayekawa Lecture? We argue that the main deficiency is a failure to incorporate the possibility of default, ...
PoliEcon
Is the Dexia mess the start of a new financial crisis? - Wall Street ...
Is the Dexia mess the start of a new financial crisis? Posted by Michael Schuman Tuesday, October 4, 2011 at 9:20 am. In the clearest indication yet that Europe's sovereign debt crisis is morphing into a wider, financial sector crisis, a big ...
The Wall Street Examiner

European bail-out talk boosts Morgan Stanley
Financial Times
Others point to the bank's low leverage, healthy cash on hand and its status as a bank holding company, all big changes since the financial crisis. “The problem you have now is that capital arbitrage desks buy CDS on very thin volume and they short the ...
What Financial Crisis?
Wall Street Journal
He could not be more like European leaders, who have been slow to see that the euro can't survive democratically unless lenders and borrowers alike are required to bear the consequences of their common mistakes, even if it means sovereign default...
Ruskin Says a Greek Default Is Better Than an Exit
Washington Post
European governments hinted that bondholders may be saddled with bigger losses on Greek debt, intensifying market jitters that a second aid package designed to quell the fiscal crisis might unravel. Ruskin speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg ...
Euro crisis contagion fears hit European shares
Reuters
At the same time euro zone finance ministers are reviewing the size of the private sector's involvement in a second international bailout package for Greece, a move that could undermine the aid programme and hasten the threat of a Greek default...

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